India is poised to overtake China as the largest rice-producing country in the world during the 2024–25 crop year, according to the latest government data. The nation’s overall foodgrain production is projected to reach a record 353.2 million tonnes (MT), marking a 6% increase over the previous year.
Foodgrain Production Reaches Historic High
The Ministry of Agriculture has released its third advance estimates for the 2024–25 crop year (July–June), showing significant gains in key crops. Furthermore, rice output is estimated to be 149.07 MT, reflecting an 8% increase over last year. Wheat production has also increased by 3.7%, reaching 117.5 MT.
This robust growth comes on the back of favorable monsoon conditions, which provided adequate rainfall during both the kharif and rabi seasons.
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan commented on the development, saying:
“This is a proud moment for Indian agriculture. The record production of rice, wheat, corn, groundnut, and soybean reflects the strength of our farmers and the effective support of government initiatives.”
India to Surpass China in Rice Production
According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China’s rice production for the same period is projected at 145.28 MT. With India expected to produce over 149 MT, the country is likely to surpass China and claim the top spot globally for rice production.
India has already been the leading rice exporter since 2012, and this new milestone further strengthens its role in global food security.
Growth in Pulses and Oilseed Output
Alongside rice and wheat, pulses and oilseeds have also shown significant increases. The total output of pulses has reached 25.23 MT, a 4% rise year-over-year. Oilseed production is estimated at 42.6 MT, growing over 7% from the previous year. In particular, the production of groundnuts and soybeans reached record levels at 11.89 MT and 15.18 MT, respectively.
Strong Monsoon Drives Agricultural Expansion
The 2024 southwest monsoon, measured at 108% of the long-period average, played a crucial role in improving soil moisture and boosting crop yields. This rainfall supported better sowing conditions for both kharif and rabi crops across the country.
Furthermore, nearly 50% of India’s farmland depends on monsoon rains, making them a critical factor in agricultural planning and output.
Outlook for the 2025–26 Crop Year
Encouraged by this year’s success and the forecast of continued above-normal rainfall, the government has set an ambitious foodgrain production target of 354.64 MT for the 2025–26 crop year. Additionally, if weather conditions match projections, this figure may be revised upward.
The strong agricultural performance signals optimism for a second consecutive year of growth in the sector.
Conclusion
India’s advancement toward becoming the world’s largest rice producer highlights the resilience and strength of its agricultural sector. In addition, with favorable weather patterns and improved farming practices, India is well-positioned to maintain its leadership in global foodgrain production.
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